Let us first look at the poll numbers of previous Lok Sabha Elections namely 2009 and 2004. The data is as below.2009 electors 71.7 crore. Voted 41.7 cr Congress : 11.90 cr, BJP : 7.80 cr.2004 electors 67.1 crore Voted 38.9 cr Congress : 10.34 cr, BJP : 8.63 crThe 2014 ScenarioGiven past trends it is safe to assume that electors increase at 1% p .a to say 75 crores. Given increasing voter turnout in all elections in the past two years and the nature of the high profile election battle ahead, a voter turnout of 70% seems the most likely outcome. If the economic situation deteriorates further and there are social tensions then the voter turnout could be even higher - perhaps even 75% ! Let us consider both cases.
Case 1 : Voter turnout at say 70% means 52.5 crore will cast their vote. Additional voters over 209 will be about 11 crore votersCase 2 Voter turnout at 75% means that 56.25 crores will caste their vote. Additional voters over 209 will be about 14.75 crore voters
Whom are these additional voters of 11-14,75 crore going to vote for ?
Important factors likely to play a big role in Elections 2014:
1. Muslim bloc vote may matter less and less : Muslim vote is a maxed out credit card ie it cannot be increased any further. Its size and importance can only shrink as a % of the votebase. A large portion of Muslims usually vote. Muslims until now have tended to vote as a bloc but this is also changing. There are Muslim parties coming up who want to represent themselves. There is a greater fight for the Muslim vote with parties who claim to be more Secular than each other. They may not ally with Congress due to mistreatment of allies ex: Samajwadi Dal, Trinamool Congress, DMK etc. Also as witnessed in the 2013 Gujarat state elections some muslims are now voting for governance - some surveys put 30%+ of the Muslim vote for BJP in this election. This may negate the effect of the Muslim bloc vote too !2. Increasing value of Non-muslim vote: Muslim vote is 20% of electorate. In 2009 election 60% voted. So if large portion of muslims voted say 90%, then 30% of vote was muslim. This also aithmetically means that only 42 of 80 non-muslims voted giving a voter turnout of only 52.5% for non-muslims. There has been substantial increase in voting in all elections in last 2-3 years namely West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Gujarat, etc. This is likely in Lok Sabha elections of 2014 also. So the increase is likely to be in non-muslim vote, non-caste based voters and pro-governance voters (given the nature of our politics the others are already voting anyway) and hitherto apathetic voter now wanting to participate in the electoral process.
3. Relations of Congress with allies is at an all time low: For the Congress, going with allies has its own problems- lack of credibility and image issues, going alone has its own problems - numbers wont add up at all and secular vote will get divided. The 2009 election saw the best electoral leverage for alliances for Congress. In 2014 allying with allies like NCP or DMK can be be very costly for Congress.
What will all this mean for the Lok Sabha Elections 2014 ? Will the old formulas of working out vote bank politics work as effectively as it has done in the past ?
Interesting analysis Koushik. My own take, taking into consideration another important factor ignored by you, ie, the increase in below 30 years olds voting primarily in the urban and semi urban areas; the next central government is likely to be led by the BJP but with some new allies.
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