Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Jobs ..thither ?

Lot of discussion these days revolve around where the jobs for the next generation will come from.

While it definitely appears as though the growth in easy jobs and careers that drove the economy may be coming to an end it is not true that job growth is coming to an end. There are massive unsolved problems and unmet demands that exist both within India and outside India and fulfilling them will provide massive impetus to job creation in the years to come.

Here are some massive job creation opportunities

1. Fruits & fruit based products - mangoes, lichis etc are eaten only  by a very small portion of the population typically well off. As the nation gets richer more people will want to consume these products.  Alternately growing more and making these products affordable could vastly expand these markets.

2. Pure food- herbs and spices . today shortfall in production is made up by adulteration in a legal or illegal manner which keeps prices down. As consumption goes up and adulteration becomes difficult this will lead to sudden spikes in prices.

3. Temple tourism and Temple economy is a very huge part of the Indian economy and can be a even bigger part. It is and will be recession free sector and  its demand arises from need for spiritual tune -up. This can provide demand for infrastructure, services and revive arts. It also has potential for pan global tourism. It is also very people intensive.

An immediate doubling of rail passenger capacity will greatly aid this process.
Rebuilding temple towns especially a 2-2 kms area around temples using modern management techniques will help increase traffic that temples can handle. It will also modernize and beautify  these areas and change the entire experience

4. Vegetarian delicacies - India is a continent with areas with different climate . This provides inputs of a very varied nature and has lead to development of tens if not 100s of cuisines of very different nature. The much reviled  caste system  has also expanded the variety of foods made. This is a global opportunity for showcasing through tourism and exporting processed foods. For political reasons our vegetarian cuisine  heritage is not getting showcased in the correct manner and this is a massive opportunity loss especially when we compare how countries like Germany are proudly becoming leaders in vegetarianism

5. Getting water table up again- free electricity has led to over exploitation of water table. Water bodies have not been maintained properly. There is one time work in capturing all tge rain eater and charging tge earth so that water table rises up. There is continuous work in maintaining these water bodies.

6. Green products - India is energy short and has does not have too many friends inrye energy surplus world. There is needless antagonism to India due to its Hindu civilizational roots. We need to develop a very low carbon foot print in relation to our GDP. The solutions like LED need to expanded into fans  ACs, public transport systems. As we drive high adoption rates in India we can shrink our carbon footprint to GDP and  we can export these tested and proven solutions to many countries. This brings us to our next point

7.Quality movement & water tight GST - if we can ensure a water tight GST evasion as a a strategy of business will collapse and efficiency and quality movement will become tge only viable strategy for a very large number of businesses . at that stage these. Businesses will find that they will make very good profits domestically and the absorption of their cost base by domestic operations will allow them to export and make substantial profits leading to good gains in margins. This will allow them to reinvest quality, design, R&D and further climb the value chain. The  Indian consumer base of 1.26 billion is a very large one and will allow for low level of  fixed costs also.

8. Tree based economy -  there is massive unmet demand for sandalwood. It is not grown due to poor law and order. This should be fixed and a grower coop like Amul should be set up and house to house growing encouraged. This has potential to completely change economic fortunes of families over 25 Years. Instead of investment products people can plant sandal wood trees to fund children education and marriages.

9. Afforestation - converting of wastelands into woods and forests could be a very large employment programme. BAIF has run a wadi programme for many years in Maharashtra doing this.

10. Circular economy / Waste recycling till we reach 100%  waste recycling : There are jobs in waste management in collecting segregating recreating  products from waste. If suitable laws are made and investments made in outreach programmes to change the mindset of people this can be a huge employer.

11. Bio-waste fertilizers : Indian soils are now seriously carbon deficit because nitrogen fertilizers were sold way below cost and farmers didn't have awareness of their soil health. If we can create bio waste based fertilizers that will drive up carbon in soil it can be a large occupation .

11. Holistic health treatments: Western medicine has serious limitations. Traditional medicines and therapies offer global opportunities for creating jobs for Indians

12 Flower based and honey based alcohols  essentially non grain based alcohols -mahua flowers could be a good start. India had a wise tradition of never using grains to make alcohol as it would affect food security of the weakest  and poorest. This is very different from Western model. Many alcoholic beverages were created using honey flowers. Recreating this and marketing them globally will create new industries.

13. Non gluten product exports such as jawar, bajra, and ragi. Gluten allergy is rising due to lifestyles. India offers many raw materials that can afford people to eat the foods they like without worrying about gluten allergy. This is a massive export opportunity.

14. Sports leagues to target sports which require ekagrata and have a lot of global money such as golf, tennis. One will provide high financial returns  and raise India's standing among world citizens and among a particular set of population

15.Sports leagues which will have lot of domestic attraction such as archery due to traditional affinity for such sports. This will entertain the masses in sports to which they can have access  at low cost and can hope to excel and become superstars.

16 Governance stack : India is rapidly developing a governance stack which can transform a poor country rapidly. IMF, World bank may have many ideas by they  do not have such tested working solutions especially ones tested in a country which is actually a very diverse continent. Solutions includes Aadhaar, Direct benefit transfer, Passport Seva Kendra, Energy  efficient devices through ESSL, Soil health mapping, NSDL for tax administration, world class stock exchanges, IRCTC. We should sell them to African countries especially to  new political formations which want to reduce corruption, improve delivery and use the money saved for infrastructure instead of going with begging bowl to hostile foreign powers.

17. Creation a workforce with education and skills to tap the above areas.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

A moebius strip called Vikaste

The 2017 Uttar Pradesh election saw huge debates on whether caste was the driving force or Vikas (development). Many argue vehemently that it is one or the other. This is like making a moebius strip from paper with different colour on both sides and asking what is the colour of the outer layer ? It is not a case of one or the other. It is both.

The truth is Vikas as represented by the building of a modern economy is the current requirement  of a very large number of people and Vikaste is the new class of people who demand growth of a modern economy because their interests lie entirely in that.

Caste, despite all the negatives heaped upon, it is a more flexible institution than it's critics. That's why it has survived and will survive. It allows for death of old ones and creation of new ones much as how you would clean up you address book on your phone. Professions are one of the important  glue that kept castes running. With industrialization, artisanal production is almost dead and many professions no longer exist or even if they do they are very small or negligible and in many cases unremunerative ex Potter blacksmith, well making etc. Trade jobs haven't which defined the castes been taken over by industries. In such situations, the original caste as a collective bargaining device has no meaning as reservations and  government jobs touch a very small as % of population and are just political tokenism.

In some states the economic transition is well underway but the social transformation wasn't but in 2017 UP elections people have realized that since their old castes no longer represent any economic interest and their true economic interest lies in the building of new modern  economy rapidly. People have realized that if your career prospects are sales man at a Bata or a Pantaloon showroom or at a  factory making shoes or apparel  or as entrepreneurs feeding into the modern industrial system then it doesn't matter what is your  historical caste. .. that's just what is called Kali perungaya dabba in Tamil (empty asoefatida box). It has lot of smell and nothing of substance inside.

The unemployed chamar, kumbhar and  brahmin have realized that their real caste is now Vikaste ...ie the caste which can only benefit from building a modern economy rapidly by building good infrastructure providing law and order, skilling the population with skills relevant to the modern economy.

We should all welcome Vikaste because it means a genuine negotiation between various groups as reflected by their current interest and standing in society ! In such a situation the negotiation is likely to be very meaningful as the government and political formations can't fool them with "social empowerment" slogans which people have realized have meant little to most.

Vikaste is that beautiful mathematical point on the moebius strip when one side becomes the other and when  development becomes a new caste or a new caste which stands for development is born. Whichever way you look at it, it is an inflection point which could change the trajectory of the India.

Day is not far when many in the country will start saying my caste is Vikaste and till then pundits who refuse to understand moebius strips will remain confused as to whether it is Vikas or caste !